Iran has long positioned itself as a central adversary to Israel, both ideologically and militarily. This rivalry is not just a regional power struggle; it is deeply rooted in Tehran’s desire to project itself as the leader of the Islamic world, particularly through its staunch opposition to Israel, which it views as an illegitimate state. However, while Iran’s rhetoric is fierce, its direct military actions against Israel are often symbolic and strategically calculated.
A Missile Drama, Not a Campaign
In April 2023, Iran launched a missile attack targeting Israel. Despite the initial shock, this event was more of a political spectacle than a full-scale military campaign. Tehran reportedly informed Israel of the strike in advance, ensuring there would be no significant casualties. Only two of the 200 missiles Iran fired actually hit Israeli territory, and there were no fatalities. This cautious approach indicates Iran’s reluctance to fully engage Israel in open warfare, likely due to the overwhelming military capabilities Israel possesses and the complex geopolitical risks involved.
The missile attack followed the death of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), during an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Tehran’s retaliatory gesture was not so much a demonstration of military strength as it was a message to the Iranian public, signaling that the regime would respond, even if symbolically, to Israeli provocations.
The Shadow War: Iran’s Proxy Forces
Iran’s true strategy against Israel lies in its support of proxy forces such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. These groups have been waging a “shadow war” against Israel on Iran’s behalf for years, providing Tehran with a way to pressure Israel without directly engaging in open conflict. This proxy war escalated significantly on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack inside southern Israel, leading to devastating Israeli reprisals. The Gaza Strip has since been ravaged, with Hamas’ military and political infrastructure systematically dismantled.
Israel, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has remained relentless in its pursuit of Hamas leaders and Iranian-aligned figures, both militarily and politically. The July 2023 assassination of Ismail Haniya, the political head of Hamas, while he was in Tehran, is a stark reminder of Israel’s reach. Haniya was killed in his residence in a high-security area of northern Tehran, demonstrating the depth of Mossad’s intelligence and operational capabilities inside Iran. This incident, coupled with numerous other Israeli operations, highlights the vulnerability of Iran’s allies and leaders despite Tehran’s extensive security apparatus.
Hezbollah: The Next Target
Following its significant operations in Gaza, Israel has shifted focus to Hezbollah, Iran’s more formidable proxy in Lebanon. While Hamas has been significantly weakened, Hezbollah, which boasts a more sophisticated military and a stronghold in Lebanon, remains a greater challenge for Israel.
Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah has already yielded results, with the recent assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah, who had led Hezbollah for three decades, was killed in a targeted airstrike on his bunker in Beirut. His death is a severe blow to Hezbollah and Iran, as Nasrallah was not only a military leader but also a symbolic figure of resistance against Israel.
Nasrallah’s death came after Israel successfully infiltrated Hezbollah’s communications and security networks. Israeli intelligence agencies, particularly Mossad, managed to disrupt Hezbollah’s internal communications, sabotage pagers and radio devices, and track key figures. The precision of these operations speaks to Israel’s unparalleled intelligence capabilities and its ability to penetrate deeply into Hezbollah’s ranks, despite the group’s reputation as the world’s most powerful non-state militia.
Mossad’s Reach in Iran
Mossad’s operations against Iranian and Hezbollah targets illustrate the agency’s ability to operate with impunity in regions that are supposed to be secure for Tehran and its proxies. The assassination of top Iranian commanders, such as General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 and Mohammad Reza Zahedi in 2023, highlights this growing threat. With each successful operation, Mossad sends a clear message to Tehran: Israel can reach anywhere, even in the heart of Iran.
The shadow war between Israel and Iran is unlikely to cease anytime soon. While Tehran continues to fund and support militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel’s strategy of pre-emptive strikes and targeted assassinations ensures that Iran’s ability to wage war through proxies is consistently undermined.
Iran’s Dilemma
Despite frequent threats of retaliation, Iran has been reluctant to directly confront Israel. Following the deaths of Soleimani, Zahedi, and Nasrallah, Tehran has often responded with fiery rhetoric, promising severe consequences for Israel. However, these threats have rarely materialized into significant military action, suggesting that Iran is aware of the limitations of its conventional forces compared to Israel’s advanced military capabilities.
For Iran, the loss of key military figures, particularly those involved in coordinating operations in Syria and Lebanon, is a serious blow. The deaths of Soleimani and Zahedi, and the unraveling of Hezbollah’s leadership, have weakened Iran’s regional influence and its ability to wage proxy wars. Moreover, Israel’s willingness to strike high-profile targets within Iran’s sphere of influence signals a new phase in this shadow conflict.
Conclusion: The Battle Continues
Israel’s campaign against Iran and its proxies has been a calculated effort to undermine Tehran’s influence in the region. By targeting key figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel seeks to dismantle the military and political infrastructure of these groups, thereby weakening Iran’s capacity to wage proxy warfare. Iran, on the other hand, continues to grapple with internal security failures and the growing reach of Israeli intelligence.
The assassination of figures like Haniya and Nasrallah, coupled with the deaths of IRGC commanders, underscores the precariousness of Iran’s position. As Tehran mourns its losses, it must also reckon with the fact that its enemies have infiltrated its inner circles. The fight between Israel and Iran is far from over, but with each passing year, it becomes increasingly clear that Israel holds the upper hand in this protracted, multi-front conflict.
